Evolutionary Progress - Applications

Large-Scale Trends in Evolution: The idea that there are any large-scale trends in the evolution of biological organisms is highly controversial. It is commonly believed, for example, that there is a large-scale trend in evolution towards increasing complexity, but empirical and theoretical arguments undermine this belief. Natural selection results in organisms that are well adapted to their local environments, but it is not clear how local adaptation can produce a global trend. The aim of this research is to develop a model that shows how local adaptation can produce a large-scale trend in evolution. A model has been developed that suggests a large-scale trend towards unbounded increase in evolutionary versatility.
Accelerating Evolutionary Pace: The model shows that unbounded evolutionary versatility implies an accelerating evolutionary pace. The model gives a causal explanation for this acceleration.
Testable Predictions: The model yields two testable predictions about biological evolution:
The fossil record will show a decreasing recovery time from major catastrophes, such as mass extinction events, ice ages, meteorite impacts, and volcanic eruptions.
The fossil record will show a decrease in the average lifetimes of species, as they are out-competed by more recent species at an accelerating rate.

Updated: February 3, 2007.